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Sterling found its footing, the rand absorbed its hike, and oil fell on a halt. Whether any of it lasts will be settled by what Warsh puts on the June 16 table
Wednesday, 10 June 2026 ∙ 8 min read
Sterling found its footing, the rand absorbed its hike, and oil fell on a halt. Whether any of it lasts will be settled by what Warsh puts on the June 16 table

The Iran-Israel halt came through on Tuesday, Brent surrendered 3.42% in a single session, and US May inflation data is scheduled to print this morning at 13:30 UTC with a 4.2% year-on-year consensus, a reading that woul

172,000. The NFP shock is priced, and now the inflation question has to answer it.
Tuesday, 09 June 2026 ∙ 9 min read
172,000. The NFP shock is priced, and now the inflation question has to answer it.

A May payrolls number nearly twice the consensus forecast has recalibrated the dollar's near-term trajectory in a way that one CPI print cannot undo but could significantly qualify. With 172,000 jobs added in May against

The de-escalation trade is unwinding. Brent, the dollar, and sterling are all repricing at once.
Monday, 08 June 2026 ∙ 8 min read
The de-escalation trade is unwinding. Brent, the dollar, and sterling are all repricing at once.

Friday's payrolls report and Sunday's missile strikes arrived from opposite ends of the risk spectrum, but pushed in the same direction: dollar up, Brent up, sterling down, and the de-escalation trade that anchored last

Sterling has repriced two BoE hikes, the dollar sits at its June high, and payrolls morning arrives into a market that has already tightened
Friday, 05 June 2026 ∙ 9 min read
Sterling has repriced two BoE hikes, the dollar sits at its June high, and payrolls morning arrives into a market that has already tightened

The Hormuz ceasefire, which had held since April, is under its first serious military stress test: a US strike on an Iranian-flagged tanker mid-week drew retaliation from Tehran on US naval installations, pushing Brent b

The ceasefire held. The deal did not close. And oil spent three days deciding what that means for the rest of June.
Thursday, 04 June 2026 ∙ 9 min read
The ceasefire held. The deal did not close. And oil spent three days deciding what that means for the rest of June.

The de-escalation trade that defined the back half of May fractured on Wednesday. US-Iran negotiations over the Hormuz memorandum of understanding remain unsigned three days after both sides described the agreement as co

UK services contracts at its fastest pace since 2021, six days before the BoE votes. The inflation-growth split just got harder to navigate.
Wednesday, 03 June 2026 ∙ 8 min read
UK services contracts at its fastest pace since 2021, six days before the BoE votes. The inflation-growth split just got harder to navigate.

The data delivered in Tuesday's sessions has made June's central bank decisions harder to call. UK services activity contracted sharply in May, with the services PMI falling to 47.9 from 52.7 in April, the fastest pace o

Trump's silence on Hormuz is itself a message. Brent has already repriced.
Tuesday, 02 June 2026 ∙ 9 min read
Trump's silence on Hormuz is itself a message. Brent has already repriced.

Monday's oil spike is the clearest signal of the week's central theme. President Trump's decision not to sign the Hormuz memorandum of understanding on Friday, citing a need for more time on the question of Strait sovere

A 60-day truce Washington hasn't signed has already done the work: cheaper crude, a softer dollar, a firmer rand.
Monday, 01 June 2026 ∙ 9 min read
A 60-day truce Washington hasn't signed has already done the work: cheaper crude, a softer dollar, a firmer rand.

Brent has just closed its steepest monthly fall since 2020, down around 17% in May, after Washington and Tehran were reported to have mostly agreed a 60-day pause that would begin clearing the Strait of Hormuz, an agreem

Trump says the Hormuz deal is largely negotiated. Iran says not quite. The gap between those two statements is Friday's most consequential open position.
Friday, 29 May 2026 ∙ 9 min read
Trump says the Hormuz deal is largely negotiated. Iran says not quite. The gap between those two statements is Friday's most consequential open position.

The SARB delivered a 25 basis point hike to 7% on Thursday, the first since 2023, in a week when the same oil shock driving that decision appeared to be approaching resolution. The Hormuz ceasefire framework is close eno

Oil retreats, the rand finds its footing, and SARB walks into the room with a harder decision
Thursday, 28 May 2026 ∙ 8 min read
Oil retreats, the rand finds its footing, and SARB walks into the room with a harder decision

Reports of a draft Iran-US agreement, dismissed by Washington but credible enough to move markets, took Brent below $96 a barrel and rewrote the inflation calculus that has driven G7 policy for two months. Two non-Irania

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