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Daily Brief Archive

Explore our complete collection of market insights and commentary.

Economists see one more ECB hike, markets see three, and today's projections begin settling it
Thursday, 10 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
Economists see one more ECB hike, markets see three, and today's projections begin settling it

Brent went through $102 overnight, its highest since May, and the first central bank that has to answer for it decides at 13:15 BST. A quarter point from the ECB is 99% priced, so the number that matters is not the decis

US strikes on Iranian tankers pushed Brent to $99, and global bond yields went with it
Wednesday, 09 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
US strikes on Iranian tankers pushed Brent to $99, and global bond yields went with it

Brent is at $99.46 this morning, a dollar from a number that reopens every hedging assumption in the market, after US forces struck Iranian tankers at Kharg Island, the terminal that loads roughly nine-tenths of Iran's c

South Africa may print a contraction this morning, fifteen days before a rate hike it cannot afford
Tuesday, 08 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
South Africa may print a contraction this morning, fifteen days before a rate hike it cannot afford

The dollar index sits at 98.83 this morning, a second consecutive session lower and now below the 99 floor it defended all summer, which means the entire post-payrolls rally has been unwound in two sessions without the F

The rand has begun giving it back, and now needs the SARB to defend 15.98
Monday, 07 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
The rand has begun giving it back, and now needs the SARB to defend 15.98

US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend in retaliation for ballistic missile attacks on American warships, Tehran hit vessels linked to the US and said it would declare a restricted maritime zone beyo

A softer dollar and steadier gilts hand sterling a reprieve, but the jobs number can take it straight back
Friday, 04 September 2026 ∙ 9 min read
A softer dollar and steadier gilts hand sterling a reprieve, but the jobs number can take it straight back

For a week markets traded a single conviction, that the Fed would raise rates this month, and overnight it broke. A more cautious message from one Fed governor pared the hike bets that had run the dollar, gilt yields and

Gold bounced off a four-week low as yields hit three-year highs, and the rand took the rebound
Thursday, 03 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
Gold bounced off a four-week low as yields hit three-year highs, and the rand took the rebound

American employers added 38,000 private-sector jobs last month, the weakest print since January, and the market's odds on a September rate rise barely flinched. That tells you where the hawkish case now lives: not in the

American factories cooled in August but the hike bet firmed, because the one number that mattered never moved
Wednesday, 02 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
American factories cooled in August but the hike bet firmed, because the one number that mattered never moved

The market has stopped asking whether the Federal Reserve will move this month and started asking what could stop it. American factories cooled in August, job openings barely shifted, and the September hike bet firmed to

Washington's threat to Iran's main oil terminal pushed Brent toward $90, and the Fed's hike case just hardened
Tuesday, 01 September 2026 ∙ 9 min read
Washington's threat to Iran's main oil terminal pushed Brent toward $90, and the Fed's hike case just hardened

A new month opens with two forces pulling the same way. A Federal Reserve that spent Friday convincing markets it may still hike in September now has an oil price climbing back toward $90 to reinforce the case, after Was

Daily Brief
Monday, 31 August 2026 ∙ 10 min read
Daily Brief

Two things happened in the space of sixty hours, and they point the same way. On Friday afternoon Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say that better summer inflation readings had not convinced h

One speech now decides the dollar's direction, and sterling and the rand are frozen until Warsh speaks
Friday, 28 August 2026 ∙ 9 min read
One speech now decides the dollar's direction, and sterling and the rand are frozen until Warsh speaks

Everything this morning is arranged around a single event that has not happened yet. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote this afternoon, and with long-end Treasury yields near their highest in a

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